Who’s In, Who’s Out (FINAL)

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Chris Graythen/Getty Images

Chris Graythen/Getty Images

Every year I try to correctly predict who will make it into the tournament. In the last five years I’ve missed 1, 1, 0, 2, and 1. I’ve never tried to figure the seeding out but I will take a stab at it.

1 seeds
Miami, Gonzaga, Indiana, and Louisville

I think Louisville will be the number one overall seed, and they deserve it. They won the Big East and their tournament. Kansas did the same in the Big 12, but that conference isn’t as strong, and their loss to TCU is glaring. Miami could slide in there for the same reasons with a win today, though I still think Duke has the better resume. But I think the committee will reward the Canes, and I’m fine with that. Indiana deserves this seed because they won the toughest conference in the regular season. I think Gonzaga will get the final number one seed, though I don’t think they necessarily deserve it. They’ve had an outstanding season but their conference is atrocious.

North Carolina- 7 seed
NC State- 8 seed
Davidson- 13 seed
NC A&T- 17 seed (play in)

If UNC wins today that should bump them up to a 6 seed, but logistically I wonder if the committee has time to change it. If not that’s pretty ridiculous that the Tar Heels biggest win (by a mile) wouldn’t be recognized. NC State should be somewhere between a 7 and an 8 seed. I certainly wouldn’t want to play them in the round of 32. Davidson could be a very dangerous matchup in round one. Finally, congratulations to NC A&T for their improbable run through the MEAC Tournament. They will most likely be in a play in game on Tuesday or Wednesday, but I’m sure they won’t mind. The Aggies will get some great publicity for their program, and maybe President Obama will show up?

Last four in: St. Mary’s, Wichita St, Ole Miss, and Tennessee.

Others considered: Kentucky, Maryland, Virginia, Alabama, Iowa, UMass, Akron, S Miss, MTSU, and UNCC.

The committee has an incredibly difficult job of filling out the last few teams as so many schools have such flawed resumes. I give Tennessee the edge over teams like Middle Tennessee because of their win over Florida. MTSU had one win over a top 100 team. Meanwhile, Virginia, Maryland, and Alabama have way too many bad losses, while Kentucky is not a tournament team without Nerrlens Noel.

Single bid leagues: Colonial, Big West, America East, A-Sun, Big Sky, Big South, C-USA, Ivy, Horizon, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southland, Southern, Summit, SWAC, Sun Belt, and WAC.

A-10: VCU, St. Louis, La Salle, Butler, and Temple.

ACC: Duke, Miami, UNC, and NC State.

Big 12: Kansas, K State, Ok St, Okla, and Iowa St.

Big East: L’ville, G’town, Marq, ND, Pitt, Cuse, Nova, and Cincy.

Big Ten: IU, Mich, Mich St, Ohio St, Wisc, Ill, and Minn.

M Valley: Creighton and Wich St

Mtn West: New Mex, UNLV, Colo St, SD St, and Boise St.

PAC 12: Oregon, UCLA, Cal, Arizona, and Colorado.

SEC: Florida, Mizzu, Tenn, and Ole Miss.

West Coast: Zags and St. Mary’s.


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